#3rd quarter results
10 messages in this thread
And there stock hit a new low today, 6 1/2. Good time to buy shares?! What
with all there new plans and such…
Think of CBU stock as a very long call option. In other words, something
which just might expire worthless, and just might quadruple.
Some of the price may be a bet on the post-merger value of the DMark.
Suppose the price of the OstMark absorbtion is 33% inflation. Might turn
CBM's dollar-denominated sales down about 20% and that skinny profit into a
big loss. Might knock the stock down to $4 or so.
While the central banks will be fiddling with the spot and future currency
markets between now and July, I don't see them trying to hold up the value
of CBM shares. I would call CBM stock a super downside risk between now and
the stabilization of the DMark.
Maybe Uncle Irv should ANNOUNCE that Commodore stock is a proxy for the
DMark. CBM could then get bought out by the Federal Reserve in the national
interest. We could replace GWashington with a Boing Ball on the $1.
Shucks, see what a couple of weeks out of Washington does to me?
Nah… Any DMark component of CBU would have boosted the stock price. The
DM is up over 10% since November. The exchange rate markets aren't making
negative bets on the post-merger DM value.
In the same vein, CBU took an earnings hit due to exchange rate losses when
the US$ was rising relative to the DM since their $ linked manufacturing
costs in Taiwan were going up relative to what they were selling the
machines for in Germany. The reverse *should* be true now. Of course,
they probably wised up (?) and started hedging the currency risk at the DM
bottom :-). — Art
Really? I thought the $ was up since the currency merger was announced (and
CBM stock took a new jog down). Now I need to chart the DMark? Groan. Rob.
Actually, although the DMark will probably drop in value, there will
be some 30 odd million additional customers to sell to, and for the very
reason that the mark will drop in value the east germans will be able to
afford the Amiga.
— Ethan
Expect the next quarter to be a loss, according to Ethan Assoc. 8^>
Really, though, the A3000 won't be launched until July and sales will
probably slow down due to the 3000. This leaves the Apr-Jun quarter, which
has been a losing quarter for Commodore over the past few years anyway,
really bad. IMHOs as appropriate. Wait for the next stock report in 3
months, then buy.
— Ethan
Thanks for the advice. I already own! I just thought that with the Amiga
trade up offer, now would be a good time to increase. I hear that CBM
cleared out a lot (c.7000) machines and built up their depleted inventory
of A1000 parts with the trade ins. I figured this quarter should show some
improvement. I bought an extra hundred shares anyway. I've got time <:^)
Tim,
You hear wrong. CBM didn't take the system unit back, only the
keyboard. The dealer's could do with the system unit what the wished,
including return them to the person who traded the unit in.
Besides which…not real smart to sell used parts as new.
Don
Sorry, I heard wrong. Thanks for clarifying that. I still think Commodore's
a good buy, especially with the addition of Nolan Bushnell! It looks like
CBM's getting ready to crank out some hot programs on it's own.
Tim