#Commodore Bankrupt !?
41 messages in this thread
I just heard very disturbing news about Commodore- something to the
effect of massive 3rd quarter losses, reported late friday, and their
stock effectively worthless as of monday morning ???? This news was
on a computer radio talk show this morning.. tell me its not true !
kevin
I'm glad to hear that somebody else has heard…
Commodore has finally posted last year's q4 (ended June 30) and this
year's q1 results (four months late!). They lost $356 million last
fiscal year, and lost $9 million the first quarter of this year.
Shareholder equity has dropped from ~$250 million to NEGATIVE ~$56
million. They are in default on $33 million in loans from
institutional investors and are having accounts frozen and/or legal
action taken by suppliers (i.e., people who C= buys parts from on
credit who C= isn't paying).
Of course, C= sometimes writes the reports so that they sound as good
as possible and sometimes writes the reports so that they sound
horrible. The facts are bad, but things were written to sound even
worse. C= stock will likely drop dramatically this week — I'd bet
on seeing it under $2. I wouldn't be suprised if someone wanted it
that way so that they could buy low and take advantage of what they
suspect will be a much rosier q2 report.
hi dale, actually, i had heard that the stock is probably worth 0 ! it
will be an interesting monday 🙁 kevin
It's not so interesting at this time …
CBU 3.625 – 0.250 at 11:33 on 114000 shares
In fact it's gotten a bit better this afternoon.
cbu 3.750 – 0.125 at 2:45 on 138000 shares
Yeah, it's jumping around a little …
Issue: cbu
COMMODORE INTL LTD CBU
COM
Vol(00) Hi/Ask Low/Bid Last
1383 3.750 3.625 3.625
Updated: 2:59 Change: -0.250
In fact, Commodore was expected to lose money in fiscal 4th quarter.
I am having obtaining correct info, but the stock performance seems
to indicate that the stock is doing better than analyst expectations:
it finished at 4 on friday. I am more interested in the fact that it
jumped from 3 to 4.5 in one day a couple weeks ago. That event caused
me to increase my position in CBU by 1500 shares.
On a related subject, I am here now looking for info on rumors
of a shareholder developer/vendor revolt against Commodore, with the
goal of getting rid of Irving Gould. I hold 5500 shares of CBU right
now, and will happily assign a proxy to any such revolt. Any info,
please contact me ASAP.
Jim Locker (former Amiga Developer, still Amiga lover, and
speculative investor).
Mail to INETERNET:MarcR@cup.portal.com for information on the Commodore
Shareholder's Movement.
Dale Larson
– An Amiga Software Engineer with less and less time on his hands.
hi steve, i really want commodore to survive, but i find the current
stock prices unbelievable given the news on friday, i would have
thought investors would consider a company who lost that much money a
poor risk…but, hey, thank goodness they are still around
…for now 🙂 any good news from Comdex ? i saw apple's stock moved
up a bit, possibly due to their announcements.
The news wasn't *THAT* bad, speaking in relative terms, of course.
The year-end number had been announced previously and the 1st quarter
number was half the loss of the prior year's first quarter. So, as
Chico Marx said, "Who you gonna believe: me or your own eyes?" 🙂
Weeeel, I wouldn't put too much stock in the news. Big losses are not
all the same, especially with CBM. If that was an OPERATING loss,
yeah, the jig would be up. But it wasn't. That was all the cheap
3000s and 3000T you see for sale, and the PC products as well. People
smart enough to invest in CBM (or fanatic enough <G>) know this, and
aren't selling.
Kevin,
They closed up an 1/8 to day.
-sja
No Commodore at Comdex.
Steve
Actually, CBM is at Comdex, just not their booth. I know several CBM
Executives up there doing some business. More than likely finding distribution
channels for the CD-32 product.
Sincerely,
John Chang
Observing Amiganoid
Scala, Inc.
C= is here but they gave away their booth soace and were working out of a suite
at the new Luxor Hotel. They plan to do a big effort at CES and wanted to
*save* the bucks (so they say). I was shown the CD32 unit.
Mike
I knew they didn't have a booth, but I hadn't heard about the suite.
Thanks for the info!
they did pay for a fairly large booth (#116 in the old north hall bldg) but
they gave it a third party developer.
Dale,
now THAT is interesting given the heavy activity of the stock the
previous week. I wonder who might have been ramping the stock prior
to the report. (Choosing my words MOST carefully ;-).
Brian
bjbart@watnxt01.ucr.edu
Commodore's beginning to look more and more like a stock scam rather
than a high tech company. Very sad. And you said you put all your
IRA savings into it? You must like Maalox! How did you get the
info? I couldn't find it on the newswires on here.
The Philadelphia Enquirer covers local stocks fairly well. As soon
as permission is obtained, the full text of the article I read will
be posted around.
We just got a copy of the article. Hmm, with the stock closing higher after
such news, you have to think that most of the stockholders new about the loss
all along. I agree that if was an operational loss, there would be a real
problem. I still worry about the "non-compliance" of the loan. With PC and
Mac prices falling, it is going to be harder for Commodore to get discounts or
deliverables on parts to continue making any product. I hope Irving Gould can
really pull out a "Golden Rabbit" out of his hat to fix this "trick".
Sincerely,
John Chang
Observing Amiganoid
Scala, Inc.
John,
It has already affected CBM shipments. Basically as faras I can determine
from mu search for a sourceof 1942 monitors, unless the item was in the
distribution channel as of sept 1, you won't see it. So, the no parts
portion of the message seems to be true. Now, how you make money if you
can't make product to sell is beyond me.
The CBM scenario is playing out just like Piper Aircraft. Large
backorder, skyrocketting expenses (mostly due to product liabilty suits
handed to pilots who killed or maimed themselves doing something stupid or
illegal, but slick amoral lawyers found ways to tap the company as a "deep
pocket money well"). Piper defaulted on loans creditors stopped credit,
parts suppliers stopped shipping parts on credit, after massive company
parts inventory reduction sale, no more parts, lines stopped production,
huge layoffsensued, facility shut downs and consolidations took place then
the company entered chapter 11. That scenario played out over a 1 year
period. It wasn't gradual. 3 years later they are still in CHap 11 with
the creditors clammering for the judge to hand the company over to them
for liquidation so that they can divvy up the proceeds to get a few
pennies back on the dollars they advanced to Piper (actually to accident
victim's survivors…). Every interested buyer has been chased off by the
requirement to assume liability for all the Pipers still flying –
including the ones built before WW II!!!!.
The bight spot for CBM is that there is no product liability to chase away
potential buyers. Is it possible that the reason the stock didn't go
through the floor is becuase there is a takeover already in progress?
wmc – via Autopilot!
As I understand it, the supply problem isn't currently affecting
production. Again, as I understand it, the production lines are working
at capacity — producing CD32s. If somebody wants A4000s or something,
they pay in advance to have them produced.
BTW, the 1942 is OEM'd — Commodore doesn't make it, just has it's name on
it. So I don't see how the financials could really affect 1942
availablity.
Dale Larson
– An Amiga Software Engineer with less and less time on his hands.
Are the 4000 MB's OEM too? Just curious cause some people with need of
warranty replacements seem not yto be able to get them in a timely manner
(some have waited 2 months already and been told the stuff is on
"indefinite backorder" – same line I get when searching for a monitor.
wmc – via Autopilot!
No, the computers themselves are all manufactured by Commodore (though
they were contracted out for a while during the move from Hong Kong to the
Phillipines). Like my message said, as far as I know, computers are only
being produced when someone pays up front and CD32s are being made the
rest of the time. Replacement motherboards are really just computers with
one fewer step in manufacturing.
Dale Larson
– An Amiga Software Engineer with less and less time on his hands.
The MB's are on backorder. They are putting nearly all of the production
resources into CD32's right now and 4000 MB are in short supply because of
it.
Well, that worries me. That doesn't say much for where CBM thinks
their future lies. It indicates that they think they are a game
machine company, and the professional and serious personal computing
users are not an important prat of their future. This latter type of
customer should not be kept waiting for mnonthe for warranty work or
parts. And as for CBM competing against Nintendo, 3D0 licensees,
Philips, Sega et al in the game arena? Bad move. They can't eve get
CD32 reviewed in a New Media article on the new crop of "Advanced
Game Consoles". And even scarier is that the guy who is now the
President is the guy who used to be head of marketting!!!! (You
notice in the press releases that they refer to him as an ex-fighter
pilot – too scared to mention him as former VP of Marketting).
Typical – lay off the assets, reward the incompetent.
Here are my pridictions:
1) The 4000T will never go into production.
2) CD32 will end up massively overstacked and be sold at a loss bby CBM
around next August.
3) Mac and PC video and graphics products will overtake the Amiga in the
professional video arena by this time next year.
4) Most major Amiga developers will shift 80% of their effort and business
to other platforms also by thistime next year.
5) CBM will abandon dealerships and will only attempt to get mass mrket
channels for their game machines and the A1200.
6) The next rev of the Toaster HW will be PC/Windows based. (Only move
left to NewTek since 'professional' users of Amigas are thier bread and
butter, but CBM is abandoning them.).
O.K. There are the doom and gloom preditions. Anyone got "silver
lining" predictions to counter the above?
I'm just in a rotton mood over a machine I bought in July that is
still not up and running due to the warranty work mess that cost me
over $100 in shipping fees only to get it back unfixed, lack of parts
and supporting peices (like monitors!)… Whats the point of having
two Toasters if I can only run one Amiga?
Sure, I'll take a swing at at least a couple of your predictions.
2. CD32 will not end up massively overstocked; they can't make enough
of them to meet demand at the moment.
3. No way. Professional video people have too much money invested to
switch over to a new platform without a damn compelling reason.
6. I doubt it. There are too many hardware nightmares to solve in
moving the toaster over to the PC world.
I think you overestimate the importance of the fact that only CD32s
are being manufactured at this point. They're making lots of them
because (a) they are selling and (b) it's a brand new platform and so
they need to make a bunch to get initial inventories going. They are
still MAKING professional machines, they just aren't PRE-MAKING
them. When their distributor calls them up and says "gimme 10,000
A4000s, here's a check" they will go right ahead and pump out the
A4000s.
O.K. There are the doom and gloom preditions. Anyone got "silver
lining" predictions to counter the above?
Yeah, maybe you'll get a lobotomy ;^) If thats you're prediction then
you really are depressed… me on the other hand have just come in
from a night on the town… and should know better than to log on 🙂
but what the hell… I still think you are being overly pessimistic.
As a dealer let me tell you that I found the "VP of Marketing" a
complete joke. I spoke with him in the past when Commodore
threatened my developer status based on a posting saying that
Commodore was on there way out of the US–2 years ago.
This guy is incrediably incompetent.
I think your predictions are on target. Worse I hear that the A1200
may be discontinued.
Any time you feel that the CD32 is a poor choice, you should just
think about the BILLIONS of revenue posted by Nintendo and to a
lesser degree, Sega. If they are able to come through with this, it
could turn C= completely around. It could possibly fund R&D for
"professional" machines.
Now I don't know that they would choose to do that (R&D), but the
CD32 is a good concept and could generate impressive returns for C=.
Besides, if C= fails, maybe Newtek would buy them out of the Amiga
line. =8) Their future is closley tied to Amiga. Just my $.02.
You think you have problems, My 'GOLD SERVICE' expired in November, not that it
would have helped me get my a4000's Buster replaced. When a company lets its
service contracts go to pot, that's the end-o-the-line brother. I've sworn off
ever buying C= equipment ever again. The Toaster is the only thing keeping
that Amiga from flat lining. Once Newtek gets some brains and develops
hardware for other platforms (i'm sure they have to be doing it right now) the
Amiga will be nothing less than a collectors item.
anybody want to buy an a4000?
I really don't think it is a takeover, although the possibility still exists.
I'm quiet sure that the major stockholders in CBM new what the losses were and
there must be an element of faith and/or unfallible plan to reverse the company
performance. I was talking to Matt Drabick today and he asked me what I
thought. If after such a disasterous Q3 report that the closes UP an 8th,
something is in the air.
I'll admit I am a bit uncomfortable about the situation, as is many Amiga
vendors. However, I still believe that things will be OK eventually. I
recently talked to the CBM distributors and they continue to sell-through all
the Amiga products they get in! The demand is still there, and though I don't
have any hard numbers, I believe that sales of Amiga equipment is up!
I just learned today that I will be at WOC in Toronto. We have one heck of a
booth to show everyone who attends. The centerpiece will be a 4×4 Barco Cube
Monitor setup with a complete multimedia presentation system.
We also received Amazing Computing's Reader's Choice Award today. We'd like to
thank all you Amazing Computing readers who participated in the award decision
for choosing us. You won't be disappointed in the new version of Scala
MultiMedia MM300! We appreciate your support!
Warmest Regards,
John Chang
Technical/Sales Support
Scala, Inc.
Congratulations on the Reader's Choice Award!!
John,
You should go read the 'threat' in the Oxxi folder. They say they got a
program to 'replace' SCALA.
I am still laughing.
-mark=
Otto Pilot Engaged..
We welcome the competition! However, once everybody gets a look at
the new Scala MultiMedia MM300 and upcoming InfoChannel IC500. They
may have to go back the the drawing board again!
Seriously, I'm glad that there are alternative presentation and
multimedia programs available. It makes the Amiga platform that much
inviting.
Sincerely,
John Chang
Technical/Sales Support
Scala, Inc.
Either that or the news hasn't spread much yet. Stockholders haven't
received copies of the quarterly reports yet…
Dale Larson
– An Amiga Software Engineer with less and less time on his hands.
A distinct possibility. Still, I really think that most of the stockholders
new what the scoop was.
Sincerely,
John Chang
Technical/Sales Support
Scala, Inc.
Is that related to their competing against 3DO with CD32, or something
else…