Buy CBU Stock Now?
07-Jun-93 22:27:15
Sb: #103160-Buy CBU Stock Now?
Fm: Charles Hill 76370,3045
To: Syndesis 76004,1763
I don't know how active or viable MOS Tech is other than maybe a way for
Commodore to produce working prototypes inhouse. Lew E. stated at one of the
recent WOAs that CBM was moving to industry standard chip-design/production
procedures with an eye on outsourcing. Probably more cost effective.
I also doubt that CBM will hover in the basement for long. I expect the stock
to be around $6 in early January (right after the quarterly report) I don't
know what the yearly figures will do to the stock though — I expect a loss
(but then again, so does everyone else so it probably will have the same effect
as last quarters – none).
I would look for Gould to retire (look for a buyer) after the release
of the AAA chipset. It looks like it might be able to compete with
the upcoming big boys (Pentium, Alpha AXP, Power PC) and the price
should blow all those away…for a short time. For that time,
Commodore will look very attractive to a buyer. CBM has a nice
distribution network in Europe (the EC is the coming market) with
decent hooks in North America and Down Under. They hav a
recognizable name and a good reputation for strong products (just
crappy management, marketing, etc.) If the introduce what I think
they will introduce (an AGA+ game machine to compete with 3DO and
Atari's Jaguar; a souped-up CDTV with PCMCIA, AGA, double-speed
CDROM, realistic price; and the AAA chipset with 16-bit DSP support,
24-bit RTG support, stable multitask OS; upgradable CPU (68040 or
ALpha AXP) and possibly even a WIndows NT option) they will be in a
"buyable" position. They have the product, the infrastructure and
everything but the marketing and management – which a buyer could
supply. Proven technology that is HOT, NOW (Toaster and Scala are the
biggest) and they could fly.
They look buyable about the middle of next year. Actually, they are
ripe now but I think unless something drastic happens (mega cash
offer or Gould has a stroke) uncle Irv will hold out to better his
bargaining position.
-Chas