CompuServe Messages

Buy CBU Stock Now?

    07-Jun-93 22:27:15
Sb: #103160-Buy CBU Stock Now?
Fm: Charles Hill 76370,3045
To: Syndesis 76004,1763
I don't know how active or viable MOS Tech is other than maybe a way for Commodore to produce working prototypes inhouse. Lew E. stated at one of the recent WOAs that CBM was moving to industry standard chip-design/production procedures with an eye on outsourcing. Probably more cost effective. I also doubt that CBM will hover in the basement for long. I expect the stock to be around $6 in early January (right after the quarterly report) I don't know what the yearly figures will do to the stock though — I expect a loss (but then again, so does everyone else so it probably will have the same effect as last quarters – none). I would look for Gould to retire (look for a buyer) after the release of the AAA chipset. It looks like it might be able to compete with the upcoming big boys (Pentium, Alpha AXP, Power PC) and the price should blow all those away…for a short time. For that time, Commodore will look very attractive to a buyer. CBM has a nice distribution network in Europe (the EC is the coming market) with decent hooks in North America and Down Under. They hav a recognizable name and a good reputation for strong products (just crappy management, marketing, etc.) If the introduce what I think they will introduce (an AGA+ game machine to compete with 3DO and Atari's Jaguar; a souped-up CDTV with PCMCIA, AGA, double-speed CDROM, realistic price; and the AAA chipset with 16-bit DSP support, 24-bit RTG support, stable multitask OS; upgradable CPU (68040 or ALpha AXP) and possibly even a WIndows NT option) they will be in a "buyable" position. They have the product, the infrastructure and everything but the marketing and management – which a buyer could supply. Proven technology that is HOT, NOW (Toaster and Scala are the biggest) and they could fly. They look buyable about the middle of next year. Actually, they are ripe now but I think unless something drastic happens (mega cash offer or Gould has a stroke) uncle Irv will hold out to better his bargaining position. -Chas