#Craps Academy
Another reason to publish a successful betting or trading strategy is that
there's more certainty in book royalties than in gambling or short-term
trading. The casino's pockets are much, much deeper than the gambler's, so
gambler's ruin theory suggests that the gambler will go broke before the casino
does most of the time, even if the gambler has an advantage, which he doesn't.
Casinos don't make the bulk of their profit on their 'edge.' They make it on
human nature, which is to quit when ahead, and play to the last drop when
behind. Most folks take a bankroll to the Casino and play until it's gone or
until they're up 50% or 100%. This means they're willing to lose everything in
their pockets but unwilling to win everything in the casino's pockets. Most of
the stories about people who 'break the bank' involve some sort of negligence
on the part of the bettor: the bettor forgets she has chips stacking up on red,
or passes out after the sixth consecutive win and is non compos mentis for the
next seven, etc.
Most "commercial" casinos impose betting limits, so one cannot do the sort of
compound betting one must to win the theoretical maxima. After all, the craps
Don't Pass bet is practically an even money bet. A ten dollar bettor would
need only twenty consecutive wins in order to be up to twenty million dollars
(roughly). A rare event? Not when you consider the number of craps tables in
the Unite States, the number of players, the number of bets in an evening …
over the course of a year, one would expect quite a few, and the newspapers
would make sure you hear about all of them. But the casinos won't let you
hazard your ten million dollar winnings against twenty, or even your five
thousand dollar winnings against ten.