#Nudging the user
16-Jul-93 11:53:11
Sb: #131936-#Nudging the user
Fm: Rich Parker 76556,1132
To: Robert S. Mah[OSB] 72511,421
Robert,
"Is there any kind of generalization one could make on cost given the area of a
chip."
Yes and no. All manufacturing costs are figured on a per-wafer basis. Depending
on the size of the wafer, you might get more or less potential die. Depending
upon the average yield/wafer, the cost per good die can vary all over the
place. Because of the Pentium's size, it will be much more subject to possible
imperfections, and therefore (presumably) provide lower yields. Silicon wafers
are still not 100% pure crystals and any of the processing steps can introduce
flaws into the manufacturing step.
If you knew the "inside information" on the average cost per wafer for the
Pentium or PowerPC 601, you could figure out a cost per die, based upon the
wafer and die sizes. However, it's unlikely that you would be able to get the
necessary information.
Back in around 1980, it was estimated that manufacturing costs for _any_ kind
of chip, regardless of its complexity or size was about $200/wafer. For very
small chips, where you could get 100's on a wafer (e.g., TTL circuits), the
cost per chip was very low. For large chips, where only a few would fit on a
wafer (then, a 4" wafer size was fairly standard), both the potential for flaws
because of the chip's size and the fact of life that no wafer produces all good
chips, the cost per chip was fairly high (especially if you got only about 4-10
good chips per wafer).
I'm not well enough up to speed on the current semiconductor technology to give
you any kind of estimates. Early per-chip manufacturing costs are high, owing
to low yields, mainly. That's why the semiconductor manufacturers get premium
prices at the beginning. However, as time goes on, the process is "tweaked",
and yields rise, prices can be lowered…although a sole-source supplier of a
high-demand device is not too anxious to do so.
It's a very complex business and I don't think there's any way to estimate
manufacturing costs without being privy to all of the variables associated with
the manufacture of a given chip. You really have to be "inside" to know that
information, and it is usually very tightly held.
-rich-