CompuServe Messages

I don't disagree with you as a general statement, but there are some very complex issues here. Since we have quite a number of PD/Shareware terminal programs…let's use them as a case in point. How many users need a terminal program "better" than the offerings we have here? How many users need a terminal program at all? I think you'll find a vast difference in those 2 numbers. Now, if a software company produces a "good" terminal program, but a basic one…one without all the bells and whistles, they will appeal to those in category 2, but not in category 1 above. Since we have equivalent programs in the DL's (including a bootstrap program), sales for this basic terminal program will probably be poor…thus the commercial program probably won't be released. Now, take those that need something better than we have here. Something with all the bells and whistles. Folks in category 2 don't need, nor do they want to pay for all the bells and whistles…and folks in category 1 are limited, so the market is limited…perhaps so limited that either the software will cost quite a bit just to recover development costs, or it won't hit the market at all due to low expected sales. Does this mean that software companies shouldn't publish terminal programs any more? Or does it mean that they can't expect a payback of development costs (due to low sales and/or low prices in an attempt to sell a reasonable number of copies) for a couple of years or longer? There are 200,000 Amigas out there (in round numbers) and surveys show that 30% of them have modems…60,000. Of those 60,000…(who all need a terminal program), I suspect that only about 5,000 need all the bells and whistles. Since normal gross profit would run about $20/copy…then the publisher would have to sell to each and every one of those 5,000 folks just to make up development and marketing costs…with 0 profit left over. To me, that's not reasonable. So the only way out, is to either not publish, or get gross profits up…and the only way to do that is to increase cost to the user. Now neither of those alternatives is acceptable to me. There are other factors, not everyone in category 2 uses a PD/Shareware terminal program…and even some who do, also own a commercial program. So the numbers aren't as "bleak" as they seem. But they could be, and that's the scary part. When you are writing software for a PC, with an installed base of millions, then the numbers don't matter…the 2.5% who need the bells and whistles comprise a large enought market segment that sales to them alone, among several vendors comprise enough potential sales to make a reasonable profit. When you are dealing with a limited market such as the present group of Amiga owners, then the potential sales numbers are relatively small. Look at the publishers who have shied away from Amiga development until the numbers get bigger. Borland for one has said it will produce Amiga products, but only when a certain number of machines have sold (I forget the number, but it's large…and we're not there yet). I presume the same holds true for other "biggies". That leaves the market to the smaller publishers for now, and those are the very companies that can't afford to gamble very much since they don't have large cash reserves to back them up. Like I said…I certainly don't want to limit the PD/Shareware offerings, but by the same token, I don't want to limit the market availability for the commercial companies either. The Amiga will rise or fall on software, commercial software….the PD/Shareware offerings are "nice" but the commercial offerings are a "must" for the Amiga to survive. Again…a very complex issue, and one with no easy answers…or at least I haven't heard any simple answers…and I certainly don't have any.