#Commodore sinking
33 messages in this thread
OK, does anyone know why Commodore's stock is dropping out of sight
(now below $4)?
Yes, because 1st quarter reports are due next week and they will not
be good. I thought that maybe the toaster 4000 announement would
have some effect! Yah, sure – dropped 3/4 !!! What a waste!
Why would the 1st quarter reports be so bad I'm wondering, according
to dealers AGA Amigas have been selling GREAT.
Might soon be a good time to buy more :^) Wished I'd bought some at 3
in 1990, soon it was 20. I sold at about 17.
Hang on for a wild ride, the Toaster 4000 hasn't shipped YET. Thats
when you'll see an affect I bet (literally).
Man, I hope you are right! On the heels of NAB I decided to play with
some stock options – thinking that the toaster 4000 announcement
would have some effect. I've got 15 days left, but I think its going
to be a long while before we are out of the single digits again. Talk
is so depressing these days – JL
I believe that CBM stock will continue down (bottom out around 3 —
even it if had a .25 gain today) then start a steady climb up around
Aug/Sept. What do I base this on? Nothing more than watching the
stock over the last 5-6 years. In the past it's been cyclic — up
from Aug-Feb, then nosedive (altho this is the lowest dive I've seen
in that period of time). Obviously this is not a recommendation of
any type — just an observation. I spend too much money on Amiga
"toys" to be able to afford playing with stocks — if I want to waste
money I go to Vegas!
I think I'm gonna buy some more Soon. This has gotta be about the bottom.
Who knows when it will go up again.
I can wait till Erving wants it to go up Again. :^)
….John
One of our salesmen recently inquired about Commodore stock from his broker at
Merill Lynch. The word that he got was that Commodore was going to take a big
write down in the first quarter, a change in accounting, to clear out the rest
of the "old" machines. I think that IBM and others do this from time to time
when inventories are overvalued.
Greetings, all! If you have a Toaster, you may know my name, but if you
don't…My name is David Hopkins and I am a journalist with Video Toaster User
and Amiga Video/Graphics…at any rate, here's my contribution to the "What's
happening at Commodore" string… I got a call from one of my friends at
Commodore a week or so ago to let me know that he is no longer with Commodore.
It seems that Commodore has closed the vast majority (which we all know is a
minority) of "branch" offices and laid off 51 people (many involved in
development!). This news may stun you as much as it did me. The only light I
see shining here is this curious little tidbit…you connect the dots:
A) NewTek releases a VideoToaster workstation which is really a 2000 with a
NewTek label. Sells LOTS of them. B) Commodore becomes upset with NewTek to
the point that NewTek won't even send out extra "VideoToaster" machine
labels… C) NewTek claims in a dealer demonstration tape from January of
THIS year that there are currently "no firm plans" on the production of a
4000-compatible Toaster. Remember, this is an update intended for NewTek's own
"authorized" dealers. D) Commodore discontinues the Amiga 500, 2000, and
3000. Looks bad for Toaster buyers of the future. E) NewTek is having
intense, looong meetings with very high-ups at CBM. F) April, THIS
YEAR…NewTek shows the Video Toaster 4000 system at the NAB show in Las Vegas.
Nowhere to be seen in NewTek's booth is a 2000 based Toaster. What is in
evidence, however, is the attractive new "VideoToaster 4000" labels on all the
machines, obscuring the Commodore logo. G) The OPENING day of the biggest
broadcaster show of the year, where, mind you, NewTek is unveiling the results
of the last year's work, Paul AND Tim both flew back to Kansas where "big
things were happening". They were back the next day (presumably returning in
the company's private jet) and not a word was uttered. (They broke a meeting
with me is ho) H) Commodore closes US offices and lays off key people.
So, to you….what say you of this collection of interesting tidbits?
David Hopkins Gun For Hire Film & Tape Greetings folks! If you own a
VideoToaster, you probably know my name..if
Add to this, the fact that NewTek Sales in Minn. is being closed and they
are relocating back to Topeka . . .
Erik:
To me that sounds like a great thing. I think a hungry NewTek is a more
productive NewTek!
// -Mike Schiller
\X/ AMIGA! On AutoPilot in sunny Fort Lauderdale
Hi Dave,
Yes, I read your "TAMING THE WAVE" article. Who came up with the idea
for putting your pictures in front of the articles. Definitely gives it a
more personal feel.
As for big C=, I think they are going to a more direct sales approach.
Leaving the "civilian" sales to the distributors. Being a OEM vendor has
its advantages. They don't have to worry about sales per say. NewTek
will take care of making the 4000 a success. Thus keeping me secure that
my Amiga won't just fade away into misfit computer oblivion.
People will eventually come to the realization that the Amiga is a real
computer with competent software to accompany it. It is just a matter of
time.
//
Gary Vander Mei on Auto-Pilot \\//
Ha…that picture of me was against my better wishes. I was told, in no
uncertain terms, No picture, No column. I would just as soon not have my ugly
mug in a magazine, I' (oops) I'd rather let my words describe me, but that's
life. Anyway, I sent a very old picture of me that I didn't think would
actually be used…it was. At any rate, the upcoming issue has a newer
picture… be prepared for a surprise… David Hopkins
For starters, you're trying to assert relationships on data where there might
not be any.
1. C= ceased production of the 500 and 2000 and 3000 for the same
reason IBM stopped making XTs. There just weren't buyers for the
technology given the advent of the A4000 and A1200. No company
promises to continue a product line in perpetuity. Given the age
of the technology, moving on to the new lines was hardly an event.
2. You're attributing some sort of covert decision-making process to
the release of the A4000 Toaster. Simple reason shows that the A4000
gives NewTek things like greater color resolution and varied display
modes which they'd want to use. Hardly a surprise that they have new
Toaster technology to match the next generation of C= hardware. After
all, they and everyone else knew that product lines would progress.
Trying to characterize this as some grand scheme is very easy, but it
completely misses the whole natural process of technological evolution. How
many 80286-centric designs are coming on to the market now.
In short, reaching for conclusions is often flawed when there are simple and
easily explainable reasons for the same events.
John Wiederhirn CATS
Well said John.
Well said. I as a dealer, appreicate your post.
-mark=
Otto Pilot Engaged..
Ahhh, fresh air!!!
bob
~*~
David,
I am an authorized Direct Commodore dealership, and I deal with Commodore
on a daily basis. First off, you have a few facts wrong. Commodore did
slash the outside sales force and closed their West Coast Sales offices.
Currently Commodore Sales is in a skeleton shape, but even before the
layoffs Commodore people were on travel restrictions to save money.
Commodore engineering lost approximately 11-15 people, non of them from
very key projects from my understanding. Development continues at
Commodore International.
Many people have a myoptic view of Commodore. They only think of the
United States operation and assume that it is the focus of Commodore
International, it simply is not so. Commodore makes a majority of its
income from Europe, which you may well know, doesn't have a Video Toaster
product. In short, while the Toaster is an important key product, it has
little to do with the future of the Amiga in Commodore's eyes outside of
the United States.
Now, what I do know is that Commodore had a bad quarter, all around the
world. Commodore US sales from what I hear were pretty good all-in-all, I
know we had a very good quarter, but Commodore lost their butt in Germany
and the UK. Medhi Ali called Jim Dionne and said "cut 40% of your staff"
and that was that. No secret meetings with NewTek, no purchase plans,
nothing. Simple as that, Ali picked up the phone and the layoffs
happened. Commodore US has been forced for some time to work with very
little captial.
David, while I appreciate your comments, it doesn't help anyone to pass
along speculation such as yours. I know my information source(s) are
extremely good and it bothers me greatly what you are speculating about.
The people I know at Commodore US (CBM) care, and intend to continue as
best as they can given the circumstances they are forced to work under.
In my opinion, Mr. Medhi Ali makes decisions based on numbers alone. He
doesn't care whether Commodore sells computers or sells potatoe chips. He
simply wants to make a profit, and a large one. He is willing to do this
anyway he can, even at the expense of the Amiga and it's users.
-mark=
Otto Pilot Engaged..
"In my opinion, Mr. Medhi Ali makes decisions based on numbers alone."
Stange that, about accountants 🙂
>>In my opinion, Mr, Medhi Ali makes decisions based on numbers alone,<<
Make that THIS QUARTER'S numbers alone. As in 'What have you done for me
lately'..
Long term planning? Yeah we got long term planning….. NOT!
—Flying BLIND with AutoPilot
Ha…on this note I want to add something I forgot last time… It's
also very reassuring to me, as a person who has invested over $70,000
in Amiga hardware/software, to know that the interests of people like
me are of virtually no importance to Commodore. And that, my friend,
came out of your own keyboard. David Hopkins
What? What came out of my own keyboard? (Not that I necessarily
disagree that "the interests of people like [you] are of virtually no
importance to Commodore," but I don't recall saying so.)
Sorry Dale, but you suffered the problem of "stringed replies". The statment I
quoted was not directed at you, but the author of the message immediately
prior. ;> David Hopkins
I take your points, but I do feel the need to respond. First of all,
my information (the parts I know for sure) was provided to me from a
person who was formerly at Commodore in a high-level position. I
won't say his name, but you would certainly know and respect it. He
quite possibly may have been given misinformation and that's that.
The rest of my "speculation" is based on my involvement in the Amiga
industry since the month the Amiga 1000 was released, both in the
end-user arena and in the Amiga development community. As I said in
that post, I expect people to decide for themselves. Presenting
facts (and each tidbit I mentioned save the number of employees laid
off if that is the case), is fact, no two ways about it.
Freedom of information certainly allows me to express these feelings,
and, indeed, is what this entire message area is supposed to be
about, right? Should I be standing here spouting the Commodore party
line that all is well and we should continue to pour money into the
machines? That may be the case. All indications I have seen make me
wonder.
I've built my entire business on the Amiga. I don't want to see it
die. But I also don't like the idea that I and all the other new
Toaster owners and, for that matter, anybody who may have purchased a
2000 or 3000, have been told: "Yes, invest in 2000s and 3000s. Heck,
the 3000 is the platform Amiga's gonna stick with so you might want
to buy that instead of the 2000." Then Commodore releases the new
family of machines, drops the old line COMPLETELY and says "Well, the
4000/AGA family is gonna stick."
This immediately brought companies like Progressive to cease
production of their 2000 040 boards and the like for the 2000. That
in itself is great! We should have the option of buying a "less than
state-of-the-art" Amiga which is still suitable for TONS of things
everyday people do, with an 040 card for…let's say $2800. Am I
really so demented? I think not.
Having worked for CBM in the past, I can tell you one thing that is
going to change your entire perspective on information you get from
"reliable sources" at CBM.
Various employees at CBM make decisions, draft plans, and set the
ball rolling to get some things done. Down the road, for one reason
or another, the plan never actually gets executed. Why? Usually there
is no money/time/resources free for that project.
There are a LOT of good people that work for CBM. They are well
intended, hard working folks for the most part. When one of them
comes up with a plan to bolster sales, take some market initiative,
or whatever, it usually involved some kind of risk or capital
investment. Since a job at CBM is a hard thing to hold onto, you'll
rarely find anyone in the organization that CAN approve a project
(i.e. commit funds/resources) to do so. It's simply a matter of
covering one's own butt and keeping thine own job. Self preservation
is a big thing at CBM. And who can blame them? When you see colleages
all around you being let go, you tend to take a different (i.e. more
careful) approach to your job.
What has this got to do with your high-up contact? The information
you got from whoever you got it from, may in fact have been accurate
at the time. But chances are good to excellent that the information
ceased to become true, or changed radically in scope by the time it
became relevant.
I've seen it all too often. Great ideas are going to be enacted,
and then it gets nixed. It's all pretty much in the name of the short
term bottom line.
I never said you were demented. What does bother me is that you have
a certain weight that you carry as a journalist. Your speculation
will be reprooduced all around the world on the internet and spread
as the gospel. Who will be there to clean it up when your
speculation proves to be false?
You got it.. me, the Amiga Dealer. I am the guy that has to answer
the phone and say "No, the A5000 posting with the dual 68040s and
68060 processor is not real", or "No. NewTek is not buying
Commodore", or "No, Commodore is not going out of business". See my
point?
The lack of consumer confidence does more to harm Commodore than any
lack of a marketing campaign. I just don't think your posting is
constuctive at this point in time, however, I don't deny you the
right to post it. Go ahead, but I'll be with you message for
message. My livelyhood is based on the Amiga as well. I can't
afford to have what little good PR that is out there destroyed by
innuendo and speculation.
There are a lot of Ex-Commodore people running around. Information
from that type of source has to be taken with a grain of salt David.
They have other motivations and emotions mixed in with the
information they are providing you.
Finally, I am not saying everything is a bed of roses. It clearly
isn't. What I am saying though is NewTek is not gaining control of
Commodore US, nor its marketing arm.
Oh, please use that return key from time to time. 😉
Alright, let's play with this some more…it's an interesting topic.
(2 returns…;) I understand your points, and I want to say that they are
indeed valid. If you re-read my first message, you'll note that I didn't at any
point imply that the Amiga could cease to exist. Even if, and I'm NOT saying
it would, could, etc., happen that Commodore ceases support of the US market,
the Amiga won't die.
You've got to remember one thing, and it is one thing I know for sure… NewTek
loves the money they're making. It's a LOT of money, even if the "rumors" that
there are only a tiny number Toaster owners is true. A LOT of money. I cannot,
for that reason alone, see the day when Commodore says "we're gonna stop making
the Amiga in the US" and NewTek replies "OK, we've made enough money…we'll
stop making the Toaster." It ain't gonna happen. One way or another the Amiga
will continue to be sold and supported by SOMEBODY, and that somebody MAY be
NewTek.
I worked briefly in sales for SoftWare Etc in Southern California. During the
first Christmas season that we sold Amiga 500s, I sold the highest number of
them in the Western Region. I've walked people through the store with various
products in their hands going "I've never heard of an Omega. Maybe I should
just get an IBM." and sold them complete machines they came back raving about
how wonderful it was. But a subject like this is a truly viable one for people
to discuss. If you, whoever may be reading this, is wondering whether to buy
an Amiga and is letting my wonderings worry you, don't be worried. The machine
will continue to be produced in one form or another, and I completely encourage
you to buy one. I'm going to keep buying them because I love the machines. All
of them. David Hopkins
David,
I can't find much to disagree with you on this post. 😉
-mark=
Otto Pilot Engaged..
I'm not sure why you asked *me* about this, I'm afraid I have no idea!
What was the stock value before it began falling? You don't suppose
it is being set up for a takeover do you? Christ, I hope not! Couple
of years ago here there were rumours of a takeover by one of the
console company's – presumably to kill the machine a serious
competitor.
C='s lenders are putting the screws to it. That's the reason for the most
recent drop. Prudential ins. had a $13mm loan out to C=, due this week. It
was subject to extension but C= "chose to make the payment as it was unwilling
to accept the terms proposed" according to a C= press release. — Art
Thanks for that background info Art. Prudential Insurance you say?
That's the company I insure with too.