2286 Bridge $1595???
4 messages in this thread
How to predict the EXACT date CBM will ship something:
Take the date the stuff is out of fashion.
Add three months.
Take the date the vapor was announced.
Add twelve months.
Take the date the competition bests the product.
Add six months.
Average all of the above and add six months.
Alternatively, flip a coin. Heads it's a year late, tails it's two.
Jay, given that you've created this equation, you should test it as a true
hypothesis. Plug in some real dates for announcements and shipment, and see
what comes out…
This reminds me of a conversation I had once with Arthur Abraham, the creator
of Amiga Live!. He was thinking that we could all sue Tim King for taking time
out of our lives, for every crash and reboot because of bugs in his code… he
multiplied the number of Amiga users by the rate of crashes, and the time of
reboot, and estimated work lost. Arthur was getting quite worked up about the
total lost time, on the order of hundreds of man-years. I quietly suggested
that we could make a similar calculation about the total time that interested
people spent waiting for A%a Live, and he screamed in agony, and never
mentioned his King lawsuit again…
The only thing wrong with my equation is that itt's too conservative. I
should have doubled all the multiply factors, and then it'd be right.
Also, I should have added in a "stupidity quotient" for CBM's ivory tower
approach to marketing.