#Future of DTV?
15 messages in this thread
Paul— In response to your "can of worms"<<<I am curious what Data
Translation, a comparative heavyweight in the DTV area, envisions consumers
will do with a Media 100 rig, Patrick. How would this change our lives?>>>
Here are some off the cuff thoughts (nothing definitive).
Looking into the future…the "Media 100" of the our dreams…
We envison a device that lets consumers create electronic stories that can
combine moving and still images, sound, narration, animation, and titles.
It will be cheap (circa the cost of a consumer color TV)
It will be as use as word processing.
It will be increasingly digital, as video is sticky and linear—whereas
digital communications can be intermutable and interactive.
It will be as ubiquitous as France's minitel.
Secondary school students will be taught the rudiments of camera work, editing,
scriptwriting, and graphics manipulation to augment their 3 R's.
Programming will be distributed by next generation equivalents of telephone
wiring—ubiquitous, cheap.
Software knowledge agents will serve as information refineries to sift through
the vast quantities of available material to find programs of interest.
Television is the principal form of information and entertainment for a
majority of people in the First World. When all of the above is extant, then
consumers will more easily be able to send out their own messages, instead of
just watching TV.
Remember it took 25 years before Gutenberg's press began to have a discernable
impact on the literate world of the medieval period. It will still be some time
before the later day progeny of today's programming tools begin to really
"change the world".
It will be, it is, a fun time to be alive.
–PR
<<Secondary school students will be taught the rudiments of camera work,
editing, scriptwriting, and graphics manipulation to augment their 3 R's.>>
Patrick, fascinating.
I have always said that the only people interested in doing anything original
are under the age of 10.
For most of us, the only original art in our homes is displayed on the fronts
of our refrigerators. The stuff on our walls we got at Target. Somehow, when
we get older, we loose our desire to make our own new stuff.
<<When all of the above is extant, then consumers will more easily be able to
send out their own messages, instead of just watching TV.>>
As the information bandwith rises; so rises its demands on your creativity. By
the time we get old enough to afford it, we've lost the juice. It is hard for
me to visualize the types of video messages consumers will send. I send 10-12
quicktime video messages a month. But I don't think that's typical because I
send far more than I recieve. The video phone has had so many starts and each
one has been a flop. The phone companies can point to piles of research
indicating nobody wants this. What's the plan to overcome the 'creative
burden' of video? More Ready-to-wear clips?
<<Software knowledge agents will serve as information refineries to sift
through the vast quantities of available material to find programs of
interest.>>
I think you've hit on probably two of the most attractive things about Media
100 technology for the consumer.
1) People are nmemonic in nature. They want to see 'that movie where Monroe's
dress blows up when she's standing on the subway grate.' And maybe they don't
want to see the whole movie; perhaps they just want to see that scene. Access
methods to movies hasn't changed in 75 years. You still go to the stacks; find
the title; and search the reel. Albiet those stacks are now called Video
Rental Stores. How oddly unresponsive of the entertainment industry.
2) People love to collect things. Stamps, photos, coins, cards, newsclippings,
CD's, buttons, just piles and piles of junk. "I have every ______ ever made!"
Yet there is no convenient way for the consumer to collect and manage video —
one of the most ubiquitous things in America. This is mostly because the
producers of these intellectual products don't want you to. But you can copy
software from floppy to your hard drive. And you can assemble your favorite
CD's onto cassette for your morning jog. Why would consumers not want to treat
video the same way?
> no convenient way for the consumer to collect and manage video
Yes there is. Laser discs. Since I started viewing these in my home
theater it's changed the way I approach movies entirely. You can copy to
video tape, cassette and have random access to any scene. They store well,
forever. Perfect movies forever. <g>
Oh, the sound. Just fabulous. Wife and I recently bought some Northern
Exposure on LD. We were blown away by the music and over sound quality and
realized we'd never really heard this comedy/drama before over network TV
and cable even tho broadcast in surround sound. The difference was just
amazing.
-jts
<<Yes there is. Laser discs.>>
John, hey.
Aren't they great? A little bulky for my taste but then I hate tape. It's
only a matter of time before they come with standard connections and software
to make random access really powerful.
Just wait tho, until the 5gig 5.25's Video CDs get here next year. Yum.
Patrick:
>Remember it took 25 years before Gutenberg's press began to have a discernable
impact on the literate world of the medieval period. It will still be some time
before the later day progeny of today's programming tools begin to really
"change the world".<
True–but Gutenberg didn't have electronic communications in his corner <g>…
Can you imagine what would have happened w/, say, Martin Luther's 95 Theses if
he'd been able to post them on the Internet instead of on the door of the
Wittenburg Church? (Can you say "flame war"? <g>)
Best,
Tim
Tim
<<Can you imagine what would have happened w/, say, Martin Luther's 95 Theses
if he'd been able to post them on the Internet instead of on the door of the
Wittenburg Church? (Can you say "flame war"? <g>)…
But as with all starving radicals… would Luther, et. al. have had sufficient
computer equipment/resources/capital to afford to be on the Internet.
New technologies continue to change history. Written history as we know it (up
to 1950) has often been extracted from documents, and letters of the famous.
With the proliferation of electronic mail and the internet, can you imagine
your historian compiling "The Collected E-Mails of Timothy Liebe"?
Brave new world!
–Patrick
<<can you imagine your historian compiling "The Collected E-Mails of Timothy
Liebe"?>>
Already been done. We're just waiting for him to pass, now. Kinda like S.
Dali. Hated those paintings. But the minute I heard on the news that he was
dead; I whipped those babies out from under the bed and hung 'em on the living
room wall! They're still ugly, but now they're valuable ugliness. <laugh>
Paul
Paul:
>Already been done. We're just waiting for him to pass, now.<
If you're talking about me, you'll have a long wait (w/any luck)…<g>
>Kinda like S. Dali. Hated those paintings. But the minute I heard on the
news that he was dead; I whipped those babies out from under the bed and hung
'em on the living room wall! They're still ugly, but now they're valuable
ugliness. <laugh><
Gee, I always kinda *liked* Dali's work because it's so out there… I always
wonder what would've happened if he'd gone to work for the Warners cartoon
unit! (And you thought *Tex Avery* was surrealistic?) 😉
Best,
Tim
Patrick:
>But as with all starving radicals… would Luther, et. al. have had sufficient
computer equipment/resources/capital to afford to be on the Internet.<
Ahem–hardly a "starving radical", according to James Burke (THE DAY THE
UNIVERSE CHANGED). He was, if I remember the episode properly, a professor of
theology–which means he'd have had access to the Internet before most of *us*
did! (mluther@wittenburg.edu <g>)
> Written history as we know it (up to 1950) has often been extracted from
documents, and letters of the famous. With the proliferation of electronic mail
and the internet, can you imagine your historian compiling "The Collected
E-Mails of Timothy Liebe"?<
<Gack!> Frightening thought, ain't it? <g>
Best,
Tim
Tim—
Our continuing dialogue re. Luther inspires me to send you a piece I recently
wrote. Sorry about the length…I'd love to see this published on conventional
4-color magazine paper someday,complete with images…
Here goes…
Towards a Historical Appreciation of the Promise of
Digital Media
By: Patrick Rafter
Digital Evangelist
Data Translation
To look to the future of digital media, it is perhaps best to look back, to
know which way is forward.
The "Information Soup" (a highway is too linear) of tomorrow is the unplanned
product of the evolution of communications technologies and the forces that
have used and been used by them, ever since cavemen drew their first paintings
at Lascaux. The evolution of the media into tools for personal empowerment is a
recent, ongoing phenomenon that has its roots in the illuminated manuscripts of
the monks in the latter days of the Fifteenth Century.
1464
The Beginning of Mass Media
In the Middle Ages-a the principal mass medium (TEXT) was controlled by a small
segment of the total population. This early intelligensia consisted almost
exclusively of the Church, Academia, and Royalty.
This "Group of Three" alone had access and control of the means of
Learning READING
Creating WRITING
Distributing PRINTING
Communicating IDEAS………………in the form of TEXT.
These three influencers defined organized thought and communicated in a
uni-directional format to those who could read-and most could not. Printing,
the means of expression-was only possible for those who owned a printing press,
or owned the people who owned the press.
Gutenberg's printing press liberated thousands of copyists from tedious labor
but the process of printing required skilled operators using expensive, bulky
equipment.
1790-1890
The Beginning of Popular Communications
This is the century of revolution in Europe and the Americas. In documents from
Candide to Tom Paine's Letters, from the Declaration of Independence to
Darwin's Origin-the written word is a source of inspiration for democracy, free
speech, new social orders and controversial theories, challenging the precepts
of organized religion, the scientific communities, and despotic monarchies.
1900
The Peak of Text
Text has reigned supreme as the primary communications medium for 400 years.
Now reading and writing are skills shared by a majority of the population in
industrialized countries, evidenced in universal letter writing. Print is
widespread and through newspapers, pulp magazines and pocketable books
distribution of printed words is both portable and affordable.
Small presses proliferate covering subjects of interest to the general public;
electric lighting making the task of composition easier on the eyes. All these
forces combine to illustrate that text now allows bi-directional communication
and spreads the intellectual commerce of adolescent democracies and market
economies. Text informs, educates and entertains.
In the meantime, motion pictures are emerging as a new form of entertainment.
1964
The Peak of Television
Just 60 short years after the turn of the century, electricity has
revolutionized communications. Not only do electric powered presses facilitate
mass distribution of printed words, but electricity in every home enables
television- motion pictures now inform and educate, as well as entertain. A
worldwide TV audience for Kennedy's funeral demonstrates the tremendous
emotional power of video.
A new "Group of Three" controls what people think: NBC, CBS, ABC.
Information distribution over the airways remains unidirectional and video has
begun to replace print as the primary medium of communication, yet not of
expression.
1994
The Peak of Video
Just 30 years later-video has beginning to evolve into a two-way medium, as did
print before it. This is made possible with the advent of technologies and
forums for communications:
*Videotape and the low-cost videotape recorder
*Portable, hand help video cameras
*CNN
*MTV
*CableTV
*"America's Funniest Home Videos"
*Computer-based video systems
With the arrival of these new technological tools, the electronic democracy was
born.
Tinanmen Square, Rodney King and S-VHS coverage of the Persian Gulf war are but
the first examples of the symbolic power of video images, produced and
distributed by individuals, not by the broadcast "Group of Three" or the U.S.
Government.
The Marxian maxim about alienation from the means of production takes on a new
meaning in our "Third Wave" information is power economy!
In our nascent electronic democracy, the means of communication and expression
are not controlled, they are shared:
Learning Reading and Watching
Creating Writing and Producing
Distributing Printing and Broadcasting
Henceforward, VIDEO will be used increasingly as a two-way forum, instead of as
an escape for couch potatoes. But video is just another step in the evolution
of enabling technology.
2000
The Post Video Era: A Digital World
"Video" will be dead before we know it. In its place will be completely
interactive,
all-digital world where:
1) A convergent shift to digital technology among the telecommunications,
computer, consumer electronics, and media publishing industries will enable
an inter-mediary exchange of anything which can be stored in digital
form…text…computer code… full-motion video…CD-quality audio.
Binary code will be the lingua franca of the modern, post-nationalist
world.
0101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
2) Easy-to-use, innovative software will enable non-professionals to
create professional quality video. Today's broadcast television and Hollywood
studio- based film industries have lost their creative zest as job functions
became compartmentalized and unionized workers were restricted in what they
could do.
Virtual Hollywood is being built today, in individuals' homes.
The modern Renaissance Woman now has unfettered access to digital tools to
create anything her mind imagines.
Ironically the last Los Angeles earthquake may turn out to be a blessing in
disguise as people will opt to remain at "Home Suite Home" and telecommute on
the Electronic Superhighway instead of fighting traffic on the Santa Monica
Freeway.
Others will stay home in droves, in Boston, Omaha, Berlin and Osaka.
Later in Moscow, Peking, Kigali.
The typewriter let anyone be a printer.
Digital video lets anyone be a Capra, a Murrow, even a Geraldo!
3) Digital video production will be simplified as the number of necessary
equipment components will decrease and miniaturization will fit the power of a
conventional video studio onto a desktop, ultimately a portable computer.
Expert systems, video templates, clip video libraries (with liberal content
reproduction rights) will simplify the process, broadening the number of
pro-sumers of video.
Desktop publishing did this for print production in 1985.
We used to go to the studio-now it comes to us.
4) The Movie Theatre/Studio are one. With broad-band communications technology
and a fiber-optic infrastructure enabling distribution of digital content from
your home or office to mine: the traditional barriers of media production and
dissemination are lowered.
The digital "airwaves" will become the virtual marketplace, where digital
products are bought, sold and bartered.
Creators of content will embrace these new ways to share their property or
disappear.
Recall, before the information superhighway, the barons of railroad business
mistakenly thought they were in the railroad business, not the transportation
business. They were then eclipsed by a national highway system.
Their misperception is a lesson that the telephone companies, cable and
broadcast television stations, and publishers must note or pay the
consequences.
This time around-the consumer will have more say in what may come to pass.
Digital: The First Live Medium
Ultimately digital communications have the promise to:
Entertain,
Inform,
Educate,
Enlighten,
Empower…
in a way that text frozen on a page,
or advertising-sponsored, mass-market homogenzied broadcast-television
never, ever could.
But as with text before, and video's current evolution, the digital intermedia
of tomorrow will require a gradual broadening of acceptance before it
approximates its potential.
Digital intermedia will combine the lucidity of the printed word, the immediacy
of sound, and the unique power and richness of moving images.
We can imagine that day will come, someday soon at at theatre near you (your
basement?).
After all the word imagination, is nothing without an image.
###
(c) Copyright 1995, Patrick Rafter. All rights reserved.
Patrick Rafter is Evangelist of the Multimedia Group, Data Translation
(Marlboro, MA). He was Director of Public Affairs for American Information
Exchange (Palo Alto, CA), as well as a manager at Aldus, CD Technology and
Bitstream.
Patrick:
>Our continuing dialogue re. Luther inspires me to send you a piece I recently
wrote.<
Thanks! I'll let you know what I think once I've read it…
Best,
Tim
Patrick:
>Our continuing dialogue re. Luther inspires me to send you a piece I recently
wrote. Sorry about the length…I'd love to see this published on conventional
4-color magazine paper someday,complete with images…<
Have you tried sending it to some of the magazines you read? The worst they can
do is send it back, and someone might actually buy it from you…for real cash
money and everything… <g>
Best,
Tim
Tim:
<<Have you tried sending it to some of the magazines you read? The worst they
can do is send it back, and someone might actually buy it from you…for real
cash money and everything… <g>>>
Did you have the chance to read it?
Any ideas which magazine might bite on such a piece?
It is pretty academic (historic approach), not your usual news piece.
I'd be interested in your recommendations…
Did you go to NAB…I missed it (Thank God, I hate Vegas!)
–Patrick
Patrick,
I think I failed to extend my congrats on the quite favorable things DV mag had
to say about the Media 100. It must be nice; when you've done your homework
and the press notices.
Paul
Paul—
We were very happy with the DV Magazine review. Other nice ones from MacWEEK
and VideoPro have come out recently.
Glad you caught them!
–patrick