#Buying Stock in 3DO
7 messages in this thread
Rich:
3DO has defined a base level of functionality for hardware licensees to insure
software compatibility, but they are really taking a "hands off" approach as to
what features could (or should) be built in a 3DO multiplayer. One company
could add a cable controller, one could add a camcorder input for creating
special effects (wipes, dissolves, fades, rotated images, and so forth) that
the customer could then save to video tape. Ultimately they are hoping that
this is exactly what will take place, so that hardware companies will not
compete head-to-head.
I don't know if you have seen a demo of the thing, but I can say (without fear
of litigation) that 3DO has certainly done their homework. The graphics
capabilities are a quantum leap ahead of what anyone else is now doing in
multimedia, not to mention the CD quality audio.
CD-I was always a day late and a dollar short due to it's reliance on a 16-bit
off-the-shelf CPU, no dedicated graphics engine, it's funky OS9-based operating
system, and no FMV (and not truly interactive FMV when it finally did appear).
3DO has been forged from the ground up by people who have been around the
multimedia block more than a couple of times. The product has a very high
"wow" factor.
mjm
Michael:
>>but I can say (without fear of litigation)<<
Thanks for going out on a limb with your assessment! (G)
I agree that it's neat, and the graphics (in the demo anyway) are
extraordinary. It seems to me, though, the real issue is whether consumers
will spend the money for "wow." True, CD-I was not much of a leap and doesn't
demo anywhere near as spectacularly as 3DO. People have not flocked to CD-I
and maybe 3DO's advancs will make the difference. But the only experience we
have so far is not very positive.
3DO and its partners have about as deep pockets as anything out there. IBM and
Sears have stood behind Prodigy even through all its problems, and certaily
AT&T and Matsushita are healthier, with at least that much staying power. And
it will probably take a strong, long-term commitment to make it happen.
Best – Rich
Rich, it's tough to get people to "flock" to just about anything. CD audio
products (after 10 years on the market) have not even reached a 50% saturation
point in U.S. households. I'm sure 3DO is not shooting for VCR-type sales
volume or penetration (they would certainly be happy with a chunck of the
Nintendo/Sega households, albeit a rather _large_ chunk).
I agree with your assesment of long-term commitment in order for 3DO to realize
a profitable return on investment, and for consumer demand to materialize.
Let's see what happens at June CES.
Regards – mjm
p.s. Commodore's CDTV unit is now being advertised for $399, quite a drop from
the original $900 list price! <g>
Michael:
Perhaps "flock" ws the wrong word, but 3DO must hope that consumers at least
"mosey" toward their product. They have to get enough customers that a
mini-culture starts to form around it, as it has with Nintendo and Sega. Sega
has about 8 million customers, and perhaps a million of those will have CDROM
capabiity by the end of the year. So maybe 3DO has to shoot for a million or
two to become a real player. And maybe that is the benchmark- or something
similar – by which we should measure their success.
Yes, I agree CES will be an important event for 3DO. I suspect dealers are
going to look for pyramid displays of product to prove it's shippable by fall.
Best – Rich
Hi,
Having just followed the thread of this mail subject, can I just bung in a
couple of quickies to think about.
1) The best thing to sell hardware is software for the hardware.
2) CDI – the Full motion Video Cartridge that pops in the back may have a major
impact on its future, Philips at the ECTS in London were quite confident (as
would be expected) but they are continuing support and develoment.
3) CDTV is as lame as 1 legged duck with gangrene in its foot, the idea was
right and considering it was launched in on the back of the Amiga reputation it
was badly handled. Commodore are dumping CDTV and the A570 CD Rom drive at
ridiculous prices in the UK. Just what is on the drawing board though!!!
4) 3DO has along way to go despite its technical excellence, (VHS & BETA spring
to mind – again), I hope it does acheive some success as without this sort of
development ongoing because of its success, then where will these New and
exciting products come from.
There, just a few points, not intended to be arguments for or against just a
contribution of my opinion.
regards
Graham
Graham:
Thanks for your points. Here's some response:
1) We have seen perhaps three models for generating software. First, the
typical Apple/IBM model, where the hardware vendor encourages independent
software developers. Second, the Philips/CD-I model where the hardware vendor
tries to own virtually all strategic software development. Third, the
Nintendo/Sega model where software develoers remain independent, but are
totally dependent on the hardwae vendor for access to the market. 3DO seems to
be working on an amalgam of these models.
2) CD-I will survive as long as Jan Timmer (chairman of Philips) feels
comfortable throwing money at it. Once it is dependent solely on consumer
support, it is gone.
3) CDTV seems to have suffered because it was subject to control by Commodore's
unique (ahem!) management style. That which survives of the concept appears to
be the result of a few dedicated evangelists in Europe who have peeled off its
best ideas in a new configuration.
4) A real test of 3DO's viability might be a peek at projects/products (not the
dollars) its heavyweight partners are putting behind the system. If AT&T,
Matsushita, Time/Warner and Electronic Arts are developing products that
support, or are supported by, 3DO, thenthey have a real commitment to it. The
fact they may throw a few million $$ into it is insignificant – they blow their
nose on that kind of money. The crucial measure is the role 3DO plays in their
business plans.
Offered for your consideration,
Rich Bowers
Thanks for your input on this topic, Graham. If I may take the opportunity to
add my reaction and analysis:
1. Software does indeed sell hardware. As with any emerging technology it is
the proverbial "chicken or the egg" syndrome. 3DO could really use a
knock-out, drop dead, fall-to-the-floor, crawl-to-the-door-and-go-buy-it piece
of software that would indeed compel people to purchase the hardware. I wonder
if anything along like this is under development? (Rich, any clues?). But
please keep this point in mind: Apple, IBM, Commodore, Philips, Nintendo, Sega,
and Tandy all _manufacture_ hardware. 3DO will _not_ manufacture any hardware
itself, but must enlist the support of existing factories.
2. FMV is not _really_ the savior of CD-I. Remember the "I" in CD-I stands
for "interactive." The CD-I system does not allow real-time interaction
directly with the FMV itself; it serves to enhance the user's experience with
the CD-I system overall. FMV, in the world of CD-I, is a rather passive
enhancement. And it must be purchased as an add-on for those poor souls who
have already plunked down their dollars for CD-I. As Rich indicated, CD-I will
exist only as long as Philips keeps reaching in their pockets.
3. CDTV. Now on sale in Southern Calif. for (U.S.) $399. Get 'em while
they're, uh, available.
4. I agree that the 3DO technology is far and away the brightest spot in the
whole multimedia m~lange, and would hope that in some way consumers will be the
recipient of some form of this technology. Certainly the software developers
are lining up to get a crack at authoring titles for the 3DO system (the low
cost of the development environment doesn't hurt, either), and there are more
content developers on the 3DO bandwagon than even…uh, what's the name of that
company? Hmmm, it rhymes with pimento…
Regards – mjm