#Buy CBU Stock Now?
22 messages in this thread
This may seem like a naive question, but what's the worst thing that could
happen to Commodore stock?
Even if the company underwent official bankruptcy or other types of financial
dismemberment, what would happen to the stock price? If it was simply bought
out by another company, what would probably happen to the stock price?
Another way to ask these questions is, why shouldn't we all buy stock right
now?
RE: What's the worst that can happen to CBU stock?
It could hover in the basement forever. CBU stock is low enough right now to
warrant serious attention because of the potential profit in a quick rise. The
company would have to be dissolved (not going to happen, period) before it
would become worthless. A buyout should send CBU stock through the roof.
General tendencies are for it to rise in the third and fourth quarters. You
could probably double your money in four months by buying now and selling after
the Christmas/yearly report peak. (It'll probably rise to between 5 and 6).
-Chas
Something tells me it wouldn't "hover in the basement forever." Even assuming
the worst in terms of sales, profit, etc. CBM still holds some interesting
technology. I'd think that it would be acquired by someone if the company
really started to fail. As an extended stock scam, I'd think the first people
in line might be the investors around Gould. With all the money they make and
play with, you'd think there'd be some lurking resentment to do things "their
way" (which has nothing to do with the way that Amigans would like, of course)
so they'd like to step in… And MOS Technologies is still a subsidiary of CBM,
right?
I don't know how active or viable MOS Tech is other than maybe a way for
Commodore to produce working prototypes inhouse. Lew E. stated at one of the
recent WOAs that CBM was moving to industry standard chip-design/production
procedures with an eye on outsourcing. Probably more cost effective.
I also doubt that CBM will hover in the basement for long. I expect the stock
to be around $6 in early January (right after the quarterly report) I don't
know what the yearly figures will do to the stock though — I expect a loss
(but then again, so does everyone else so it probably will have the same effect
as last quarters – none).
I would look for Gould to retire (look for a buyer) after the release
of the AAA chipset. It looks like it might be able to compete with
the upcoming big boys (Pentium, Alpha AXP, Power PC) and the price
should blow all those away…for a short time. For that time,
Commodore will look very attractive to a buyer. CBM has a nice
distribution network in Europe (the EC is the coming market) with
decent hooks in North America and Down Under. They hav a
recognizable name and a good reputation for strong products (just
crappy management, marketing, etc.) If the introduce what I think
they will introduce (an AGA+ game machine to compete with 3DO and
Atari's Jaguar; a souped-up CDTV with PCMCIA, AGA, double-speed
CDROM, realistic price; and the AAA chipset with 16-bit DSP support,
24-bit RTG support, stable multitask OS; upgradable CPU (68040 or
ALpha AXP) and possibly even a WIndows NT option) they will be in a
"buyable" position. They have the product, the infrastructure and
everything but the marketing and management – which a buyer could
supply. Proven technology that is HOT, NOW (Toaster and Scala are the
biggest) and they could fly.
They look buyable about the middle of next year. Actually, they are
ripe now but I think unless something drastic happens (mega cash
offer or Gould has a stroke) uncle Irv will hold out to better his
bargaining position.
-Chas
I agree, it's tough to keep a chip manufacturing facility in tip-top
shape. I have no idea how active MOS still is. As for the Power PC –
there were 30 of them available for hands-on tinkering at Apple's
last developer conference. They were emulating the Mac at Quadra
speeds – yep, even running things like PhotoShop at full tilt.
Yes, the next generation of chips is going to be nice. Add MIPS to
the list that I gave (Power PC, Alpha AXP & Pentium) since I just
found out that Silicon Graphics has been contracted by Time Warner to
do the interactive computer hardware for the proposed fiber-optic
cable nets here in Central FLorida. They're supposed to use MIPS
processors. Kaleida (a joint venture between IBM & Apple) is also in
on the deal with controlling software.
Commodore could have a distinct advantage with a new computer simply
because everyone else is figuring these super-fast RISC processors
are good enough by themselves. They're all nice, but if Commodore
can add chips that meet the published "specs" of the AAA for handling
graphics, sound and periphery then it could be unbeatable in power.
-Chas
Emulating a quadra at speed is nothing, when they become usable it will be
cool… like an emplant in an a2000 with an 040. ;- }
My 040 accelerated A2000 is running at Quadra speeds… VERY usable with
the Emplant!
It could easily lose half its value. It is theoretically possible for it
to become worthless paper. It is likely to lose some of its value, and
isn't very likely to recover quickly like it did two summers ago. If you
like playing the lottery, C= lottery tickets are about $3 each 🙂
Too bad there aren't enough of us to form a stong enough consortium that
could buy them out. Imagine the Amiga users taking over the company. Oh
God! We might even sell a few million a year.
Peter
There aren't? 1) How many Aniga Users are there? 2) How many shares of C=
voting stock are there? the answers could be interesting…
// Brian — Cruising on AutoPilot…..
\X/
1) I think there are less than 4 million Amigas, so significantly less
than four million Amiga Users. 2) There are 33 million shares of C=
stock.
I hope this goes bacl to my question. Are there enough users to buy out
Commodore. Worldwide there are now 5 million Amigas, however, I think
there are conciderablt less than 5 million users. (I myself have owned 5
different Amigas.) However of those 5 million machines sold, only 750,000
have been here in the states. I guess now that makes a user takeove quite
difficult logistically. We would need an International User Consortium.
I don't think we have that much luck.
Peter
You don't need 51% to control the company.Just large coordinated block
tocounter any other coallition. My understanding is that Irv own 20 % so
you need about 23% to offset him.
wmc – via Autopilot!
I'm no fan of top CBM management. However, history aside, I think the
company has far less maneuvering room right now than people generally
realize, given market conditions. It's sort of like the problem facing
the White House and Congress now; everyone knows what to do to get
the deficit under control, but there are few ways to do it that
produce consensus, and no easy ways. Whatever CBM does, it looks
ineffective, but that's not an outcome very much under its control.
E.g., to generate name recognition for the Amiga on the order of what
Apple has achieved for the Mac probably would require a nine-figure
ad budget, which C= simply doesn't, and likely won't ever, have.
In sports, when you're way behind in the game, a good strategy is to begin
taking risks. Corporations aren't as inclined to do that, however, until
it's too late.
Point is, a corporate takeover is fine, but don't expect it to change the
Amiga's status all that much.
— Ron Legro, Milwaukee
via AUTOPILOT (the only way to fly)
All I know is that I just bought some Commodore stock today. The way
I figure it, with it being SO LOW, I can't loose all that much, but
stand to gain LOTS if/when the stock goes back to it's normal levels.
It is also my understanding that Gould does not currently have
control over the company, but that it is in the hands of Medhi Ali.
Gould does not like what's going on now but will take him several
weeks (lining up proxies) to regain control of the company.
Gould gave Medhi the control in the first place. I hadn't yet heard
that Irv had changed his mind, but then I guess he got annoyed when
he lost the "pet jet." 🙂
I believe there was an arrangement made in '87 that gave Ali product
and marketing control — as well as that of CFO.
There are a number of rumors floating around — from a proxy fight
that Gould lost (and will engage again) to rumors of Ali's immenient
resignation, etc. Only time will tell what will really happen.
They had better decide on something soon. On Mondays close the stock
is now down to $2.78.
Yeah, the first thing would be to fire the marketing department and
contract to NewTek for broad-based Amiga marketing and delear network
devlopment. Whatever anyone's opinions of NewTek are, they must
admit that they know howto create excitementabout a product and how
to make it relatively easy to get.
You say that NewTek really knows how to market a product. I agree. But
how would you (as well as other Amiga users) feel about the next
generation Amiga being called 'The Toaster Workstation' being placed
in a really cool package (rather than the normal C= stuff), and the
next rev of the OS being called 'ToastOS v1.0'? Personally I really
wouldn't care. No matter what you call it, it'd still be the same
machine. Might be that Newtek had the right idea to disassociate with
Commodore, at least I think so. Imagine the 2 following
conversations:
Exec 1 "We need to get a new computer to help with some of our production
needs, do you have any suggestions?"
Exec 2 "Well, I understand that there's a new machine available from a new
company that is supposedly more powerful than an SGI machine."
Exec 1 "Oh? What OS does it run?"
Exec 2 "Well, it's proprietary, but it does allow the machine to do much
more than machines tied to one of the old standards. It is however fully
integratable into our current setup, as it has full networking support,
etc."
Exec 1 "Ok, lets look into the machine at once!"
——————————————————-
Conversation #2
Exec 1 "We need to get a new computer to help with some of our production
needs, Do you have any suggestions?"
Exec 2 "Well, I understand the Commodore Amiga can do some really neat
stuff with a few added cards."
Exec 1 "Do you mean the folks that made the C64? I thought they only made
game machines! I don't think that'd be a good idea for us!"
Exec 2 "Well, they did make some game machines, but this looks like it
might be different"
Exec 1 "How different can it be? And besides, I'd rather get an IBMPC than
a machine from a game maker!"
Exec 2 "Well, you might be right… I understand that OS/2 is coming…"
——————————————————-
Well you get my point. At this point, it might do Commodore some good
to have an aggressive company market the product under whatever name
they want to. The only real concern I have is with the way NewTek
treats 3rd party developers. If they could change that, it might be
the breath of life Commodore has been looking for for a while now.